Comparing three Fridays in January 2019, 2020, and 2021. (It is still a good time be a seller).

Comparing today’s inventory with similar Fridays in early January during the past two years suggests that elements are in place for another good Spring for sellers and a frustrating Spring for buyers. Check out the findings reflected in these graphs. Call us with any questions.   

Active inventory is once again historically low. It is almost identical to where it was last year at this time, and we know how last spring turned out (in case you don’t know, it was a feeding frenzy with insane multiple-offer situations on even mediocre homes). There were nearly three times as many homes for sale at this time in 2019 than there are right now. (And 2019 was shaping up to be a pretty good Spring until Covid-19 became part of our daily vocabulary).

Just like 2021, there are still a lot more homes in escrow than there are actively for sale. (351 for sale compared to 669 under contract). Buyers are still buying. In comparison, in 2019, there were 954 homes actively for sale, but only 691 under contract). That said, there were 105 more homes in contract last year than this year, which reflects higher buyer activity last year. Between slightly lower buyer activity this year and much higher prices, it is likely we will not see the same intensity of buyer activity as we saw last year. But the percentage of total listings in escrow is still very similar to last year. In short, it will likely be a good spring for sellers.

The increases in average and median prices are remarkable! Yet buyers continue to buy, whether it is renters achieving home ownership or buyers from other states taking advantage of Reno’s great natural amenities, good tax environment, and great standard of living. A big factor everyone is monitoring that could impact buyer activity is rising interest rates. They have been rising this week and that is expected to continue.    

Notes on data: These graphs represent snapshots of three Friday mornings in early January in 2019, 2020, and 2021. I selected three Fridays because (1) today is Friday and (2) inventory oscillates throughout the week and it would be less accurate to compare a Wednesday morning (when inventory is often at its lowest for the week) with a Saturday morning (when inventory is usually at its highest for the week).

One of my routines every morning is to track and record key market indicators that are hard to compile unless logged in real time. Some of these indicators include the number of “active” listings on the market (listings actively for sale that are not “under contract”), the number of listings “under contract” (listings where a purchase agreement has been signed but the sale has not yet closed), and the median and average price of active listings. I have been consistent in this practice for several years, and it allows me to look at a glance and see where the market has been and where it is now, in hopes of predicting where it might be down the road.

This information was pulled from the Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service from “Area 100” (all of Reno-Sparks). Listing data included single family homes, condos/townhomes, and manufactured homes. The active listings included all applicable active statuses (including new, back on market, active, coming soon (when it was in effect), extended, price reduced, and price increased). The “under contract” statuses included all applicable pending statuses at the time (over the years, the number of statuses has been greatly simplified).

If you have any questions on this data, do not hesitate to call us.